UNC Undergraduate Public Policy Capstone
Safeguarding North Carolina's Coastal Wetlands for Equitable Climate Resilience
A cross disciplinary capstone that translates 25 years of data, policy shifts, and stakeholder signals into a pragmatic playbook for protecting Carteret County’s wetlands, water quality, and coastal livelihoods.
Years of land cover, permitting, and water-quality data reviewed to understand coastal change.
Aligns ecological science, legal mandates, and community advocacy to keep wetlands working for coastal communities.
Executive Summary
Wetlands anchor North Carolina’s coastal economy, biodiversity, and flood resilience. Yet federal and state rollbacks in 2023 removed protections for isolated wetlands, putting more than 2.5 million acres at risk. Coastal Carolina Riverwatch commissioned this capstone to clarify the on-the-ground reality in Carteret County and to chart a resilient path forward.
- Despite policy rollbacks, 25 year datasets show minimal net wetland loss or low-intensity development growth, underscoring the value of historic protections.
- Water quality proxies—harmful algal blooms, swim advisories, shellfish closures, and 303(d) listings—remain fragmented, limiting trend detection without better data governance.
- Federal and state legal shifts dramatically shrink wetland jurisdiction, creating an urgent opening for county-level leadership and targeted coalition action.
Why Wetlands Matter to Carteret County
Economic Safeguards
Wetlands underpin coastal tourism, recreation, and fisheries—supporting up to 90% of recreational catch while buffering storm damage that would otherwise devastate local GDP.
Biodiversity Strongholds
Carteret wetlands host over 40 threatened or endangered species and maintain nursery habitat for commercially valuable finfish and shellfish, making them key to statewide ecological health.
Public Health Infrastructure
Healthy wetlands filter pollutants, reduce disease vectors, and sustain nutritious food systems—safeguarding communities from toxins, harmful algal blooms, and sanitation crises.
Natural Hazard Defense
Dense root systems stabilize shorelines, absorb floodwater, and dissipate wave energy. Loss of wetland vegetation can double erosion rates, leaving neighborhoods exposed to storms.
Project Scope & Approach
To diagnose wetland vulnerability and water-quality trends, the team combined quantitative analysis, geospatial modeling, and legal research across five integrated workstreams.
Permit & Data Audits
Reviewed 10,500+ CAMA and dredge-and-fill permits (1998-2022). Data gaps and inconsistent records limit the reliability of permit counts as standalone degradation indicators.
NOAA C-CAP Analysis
Mapped land cover change at five-year intervals. High- and low-intensity development increased modestly; emergent wetlands declined by ~3 sq. miles, suggesting relative stability.
GIS Change Detection
Used NLCD rasters and change indices to visualize impervious expansion and wetland class shifts. Detected targeted urban creep near Morehead City but little wholesale wetland loss.
Water-Quality Proxies
Evaluated harmful algal blooms, swim advisories, shellfish closures, and Section 303(d) listings. Fragmented datasets and methodology changes obscure definitive trendlines.
Policy Landscape Review
Benchmark analysis across federal, state, and county statutes plus peer jurisdictions in Maryland to uncover regulatory gaps and scalable models for Carteret County.
Key Insights Across the Research
Part 1 · Land Change Trends
- Permit counts fluctuated heavily year-to-year, limiting statistical usefulness without better cataloging.
- C-CAP and NLCD data show minimal net wetland loss; woody wetlands remain dominant.
- Urban expansion concentrates around existing cores, highlighting the protective effect of prior regulation.
Part 2 · Water-Quality Indicators
- 83 harmful algal blooms recorded since 1999, heavily clustered near Calico Creek’s wastewater discharge.
- Swim advisories and shellfish closures spike after major storms but datasets are inconsistent across agencies.
- 303(d) listings shifted due to methodology changes, complicating longitudinal comparisons.
Part 3 · Policy Evolution
- Supreme Court rulings (Rapanos, Sackett) and the NC Farm Act narrow the Clean Water Act’s wetland reach.
- North Carolina once led on wetland protections; recent rollbacks erase safeguards for isolated systems.
- County-level mechanisms (e.g., Areas of Environmental Concern designations) offer remaining leverage.
Part 4 · Comparative Models
- Carteret’s current ordinances rely on state standards; little bespoke zoning or mitigation requirements exist.
- Other NC counties deploy programmatic solutions (e.g., CCAP, mitigation banks) that Carteret can scale.
- Maryland counties demonstrate strong local controls through watershed master plans and critical-area rules.
Policy Landscape & Levers
Federal Frame
The Navigable Waters Protection Rule and Sackett decision remove adjacent and isolated wetlands from the Clean Water Act, placing compliance burdens on local actors.
State Shifts
North Carolina’s Farm Act aligns state definitions with weakened federal standards, reversing decades of leadership on isolated wetland protections.
Local Opportunity
County-level tools—expanded Areas of Environmental Concern, data standards, and tailored development ordinances—can re-establish guardrails and mobilize partners.
Recommendations
Modernize Wetland Data Governance
Create a shared, searchable database across NCDEQ divisions and county partners to standardize permit records, water-quality monitoring, and GIS layers. Reliable data is the precondition for responsive policy and enforcement.
Adopt Proven Local Controls
Mirror Maryland’s watershed master plans and natural-feature notices: require site-scale wetland verification, codify mitigation ratios, and integrate resilience planning with community engagement.
Expand County Protections
Leverage CAMA’s Areas of Environmental Concern and broaden local definitions to cover all wetlands of ecological, cultural, or recreational significance—restoring safeguards lost at higher levels of government.
Artifacts & Documentation
Access the full report, poster, and supporting materials that informed the recommendations.