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UNC Old Well logo UNC Master of Public Policy Capstone

Energy's Role in Climate Resilience: A Q Methodology Study of Governance and Community Priorities in North Carolina

Mapping how North Carolina stakeholders envision resilient, justice-centered energy systems in the wake of Hurricane Helene and surging demand, translating divergent viewpoints into actionable guidance for policy and community planning.

Primary Investigator: Tristen Best, MPP Candidate (Energy Policy)
Capstone Partner: Energy Transition Initiative
9

Stakeholder Q-sorts spanning local officials, utilities, community advocates, and policy professionals.


50
Research statements spanning equity, governance, infrastructure, and markets.
2
Divergent resilience narratives surfaced through factor analysis.
Practitioner framework delivered

Comprehensive roadmap enabling agencies to translate Q-factor insights into resilient funding and program design.

Method Q methodology with principal component analysis & varimax rotation.
Design Mixed-method stakeholder study aligning qualitative insight with quantitative sorting.
Domain Energy transition, climate resilience, disaster adaptation, governance.
Stakeholders Local governments, utilities, community leaders, policy advisors.

Abstract

This graduate capstone applies Q methodology to illuminate how North Carolina stakeholders conceptualize climate and energy resilience as the state faces intensifying hazards and escalating demand. Participants sorted fifty statements derived from literature, policy discourse, and ETI partnerships; factor analysis surfaced two distinct narratives spanning equity, governance, technology, and risk. The project integrates resilience theory, energy justice, and adaptive governance to argue for inclusive, locally tuned resilience planning.

Findings provide actionable guidance for institutions, including UNC's Energy Transition Initiative, seeking to anchor low-carbon investments and policy strategies in community-defined priorities.

Executive Summary Highlights

  • Hurricane Helene (2024) left over one million without power and caused $1.4B in grid damage, underscoring the urgency of strategic resilience investments.
  • Statewide population growth above 11M amplifies load demand and stresses aging infrastructure.
  • Stakeholder cohort includes policymakers, utility officials, local leaders, and community advocates, capturing urban, coastal, and rural lenses.
  • Two dominant perspectives emerge, revealing complementary yet tension-filled visions for equitable, reliable energy futures.

Method & Study Architecture

Designed with UNC's Energy Transition Initiative, the study blends structured Q-sorts with qualitative debriefs to capture nuanced viewpoints on resilience, governance, and equity. The analytic workflow pairs rigorous factor extraction with narrative interpretation to transform subjective positions into policy-relevant storylines.

Why Q Methodology?

Q bridges qualitative insight and quantitative clustering, ideal for surfacing latent coalitions when policy debates are polarized or data-light.

  • Centers lived expertise while preserving analytic rigor.
  • Reveals consensus and fault lines that traditional surveys miss.
  • Creates actionable factor narratives aligned with ETI programming.
Step 1

Statement Design

Fifty statements synthesized from resilience research, state energy policy debates, and ETI consultations, covering authority, infrastructure, equity, climate risk, and markets.

Step 2

Stakeholder Sorting

Nine participants, including municipal resilience officers, cooperative and investor-owned utility staff, nonprofit leaders, and policy advisors, ranked statements on a forced quasi-normal grid.

Step 3

Factor Extraction

Principal components with varimax rotation isolated two dominant factors explaining the majority of variance, capturing distinct governance philosophies.

Step 4

Narrative Construction

Merged quantitative loadings with qualitative follow-ups to craft scenario-based narratives, ready for policy workshops and ETI pilot design.

Two Complementary Narratives

Both factors champion resilience yet diverge on governance: one foregrounds justice-oriented mandates, the other seeks technocratic modernization. Together they spotlight the policy choreography required to secure durable support statewide.

Shared Ground

  • Agreement that resilience must extend beyond hardening assets to strengthening community capacity.
  • Recognition that climate risk is escalating faster than current investment cycles.
  • Support for pairing federal incentives with targeted local implementation.

Where They Diverge

  • Justice-oriented pragmatists prioritize state mandates, public investment, and equity metrics; technocratic modernizers emphasize expert discretion, performance data, and rate structures.
  • One coalition seeks transparency and community benefits agreements, while the other stresses risk modeling and cost-benefit vetting.
  • Differing comfort with politicized framing signals the need to balance moral appeals with reliability narratives.

Equity-forward resilience playbook

Prioritizes public investment, regulatory mandates, and inclusive governance to safeguard historically marginalized communities.

  • Calls for targeted resilience funding, community benefits agreements, and transparency in grid planning.
  • Sees state leadership as essential to correcting legacy disparities and coordinating coastal protection.
  • Aligns with energy justice frameworks and climate equity mandates emerging across the Southeast.

Top ranked statements

  • #5. State-level mandates are essential to ensure North Carolina transitions quickly to renewable energy sources.
  • #8. North Carolina’s economy will grow faster if it leads the Southeast in clean energy innovation.

Lowest ranked statements

  • #7. Voluntary action by citizens is enough to achieve energy resilience without government mandates.
  • #48. Climate projections are too uncertain to justify massive investments in renewable energy.

Modernization with technical guardrails

Champions data-driven planning, asset upgrades, and expert-led coordination to minimize downtime and economic disruption.

  • Supports federal subsidies and rate structures that accelerate grid hardening and storage deployment.
  • Advocates for performance metrics, cost-benefit analysis, and risk modeling to prioritize investments.
  • Prefers depoliticized framing, keeping resilience debates anchored in reliability and economic competitiveness.

Top ranked statements

  • #3. Stricter government regulations on greenhouse gas emissions are necessary to protect communities from climate impacts.
  • #35. Nuclear power is a reliable, low-carbon energy source that enhances resilience.

Lowest ranked statements

  • #47. A statewide resilience task force, representing all counties, would streamline decision-making.
  • #31. Climate projections are too uncertain to justify massive investments in renewable energy.

Bridge the visions

Design blended portfolios that pair equity-first programs (weatherization, community microgrids) with large-scale modernization (storage, transmission) to maintain broad coalitions.

Institutionalize co-design

Embed Q-method workshops and participatory design sprints into ETI pilots, surfacing trade-offs early and translating factor narratives into implementation charters.

Target high-risk communities

Prioritize resilience dollars toward coastal, low-income, and frontline communities while ensuring technocratic metrics capture social as well as physical vulnerability.

Implementation Roadmap

Pilot Concepts with ETI

  • Develop a "Resilience Alignment" workshop toolkit translating factor statements into implementation principles for municipalities.
  • Pair microgrid feasibility studies with community benefit scoring derived from pragmatist factor priorities.
  • Launch a data dashboard tracking reliability, outage equity, and investment flows to satisfy technocratic benchmarks.

Policy Levers

  • Leverage House Bill 951 implementation to braid federal (IRA) incentives with justice-centered state programs.
  • Adopt resilience cost-sharing models that reward utilities for equitable planning and data transparency.
  • Integrate Q-method findings into North Carolina resilience planning documents and coastal adaptation compacts.

Artifacts & Documentation

Full capstone report, IRB exemption details, and stakeholder synthesis ready for policy distribution.

Final Report (PDF) IRB Exempt (#25-0460)